Welcome in, everybody. Happy Friday! Great to see so many of you here—shoutout to Apple User, Kathy, Raju, and everyone joining from around the world, including Dubai. Hope your Friday (or Saturday) is going well.
Let’s dive into the markets. I posted a video earlier today—if you haven’t seen it, the TL;DR is: I don’t think we’ve hit the true bottom yet. As I’ve mentioned before, this feels a lot like 2022 or 2018, where there’s an initial bottom, followed by a final one that comes later. It’s going to take time for inflation data and policy impacts to fully surface.
If I had a crystal ball, I’d say we’re still a few months away from the actual bottom. The correction this time has been faster, largely because algorithmic trading now makes up around 80% of total volume. The velocity of selling is much higher. More connected investors, more algos—it just makes things move quicker.
Right now, the options market is pricing in a 2.5% move in either direction for next week. That’s a reflection of how uncertain the market is, especially with recent surprises like the auto tariffs. I actually sold into cash today—Bitcoin included—because the next move is anyone’s guess.
The good news? We saw a big drop in the 10-year Treasury yield today. That red candle is a sign people are piling into Treasuries, which pushes the yield down. That’s significant because this yield impacts everything—mortgage rates, debt servicing, Fed policy. The administration needs it lower to start focusing on the stock market again.
As for gold, there’s been a lot of hype. Analysts and banks are talking it up, but if you look at the RSI, gold is entering overbought territory. That usually means a near-term pullback. So if you’re eyeing gold, you might want to wait a bit.
Overall, it’s a highly volatile environment. The administration’s next move is unclear. If yields continue falling and markets keep sliding, they might pull back some of the tariffs. But again, I’ve moved to cash for now. I prefer flexibility.
For those wondering: yes, I use a signals-based system. If you want to try it, go to joinsignals.com/fungmoney for a free two-week trial. TikTok or Substack subscribers get a full year of access for free. The product highlights real-time buy/sell signals and names that have been beaten down but show strength in fundamentals like sales growth.
For example, names like Wayfair or Kohl’s—stocks that aren’t the flashy tech plays but are quietly gaining traction. These are the types of names I’ll be focusing on next week: aiming for modest 5–7% gains over a two-week swing, then rotating into the next batch.
Quick shoutout to Apple User—tried Signal for five stocks, four were profitable in two days. Love to hear that. The key is acting quickly when a signal comes through.
If you’ve recently bought into the market, here’s some advice: historically, if you bought near the top and didn’t add on dips, it could take up to a decade to break even. But if you dollar-cost average (DCA) on each 5–10% dip, the recovery time shrinks dramatically.
Dollar-cost averaging just means lowering your average purchase price over time by buying more when prices fall. So if you bought at $100 and it falls to $80, you buy more, and now your breakeven point is lower.
Recession odds? I’d say 50–75% chance. The banks and institutions might say lower, but they have a vested interest in being optimistic. The real risk could be higher. A falling 10-year yield could prevent recession—but we’re not there yet.
If you’re managing your own portfolio, unless you’re doing this full-time, ETFs are your friend: VIG, SCHD, or VOO. Focus on your income, and DCA into those safer instruments. If you are more active, 5–10 core stocks is a good starting range.
Some of you asked if you need a card to try Signals. Normally, yes—but if you’re a regular in the lives, DM me and I’ll send you a special code.
For longer-term plays, I like a “barbell portfolio” strategy—pair low-risk dividend ETFs like SCHD and VIG with higher-risk names like Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, and AI-driven companies. Personally, I’m cautious on Google and Intel right now. Tesla remains on my long-term radar, but I sold recently to lock in a short-term gain (20% in 15 days) as part of my swing strategy.
I’m also seeing smart money rotating into China and Europe. Alibaba and Tencent are on my watchlist—especially BABA, which is like China’s Amazon and making strong moves in AI.
Today might’ve felt rough, but trust me—this is nothing compared to 2008. I was on the Merrill Lynch trading floor the day it collapsed. That was chaos. What we’re seeing now is part of a broader “detox” phase, similar to what tech startups went through post-ZIRP. Governments are trying to unwind debt excesses—if they don’t, we’re staring down real risk of bankruptcy.
Bottom line: stay cautious. Watch for relief rallies, but always ask—has anything fundamentally changed? If not, it could be a pump fake. It might take 1–3 months for enough data to clarify where we’re actually headed.
If you found this helpful and want to continue learning, subscribing on TikTok or Substack helps me justify more time for these lives and deeper dives. I’ll keep doing lives and sharing thoughts, but your support means a lot.
Thanks again to everyone who tuned in. I’ll be doing another live on April 4th for non-farm payrolls—jobs data will be critical in the coming weeks.
Take care, be safe, and be smart out there.
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