⏱️ Quick Chapters
[0:00–5:00] Morning Vibes: Father’s Day, Japan BBQ, and sprinting back into the week
[5:00–11:00] Mideast Conflict vs Market Rally: Why war headlines aren’t crashing stocks
[11:00–17:00] Oil, RSI, and the S&P: Technicals say we’re stalling, liquidity says not yet
[17:00–24:00] The Money Flood: M2 money supply hits all-time highs — here’s why it matters
[24:00–29:00] Fed Preview: Interest rates, tone, and the silent 3rd weapon (language)
[29:00–35:00] Retail Sales Setup: May consumer pull-forward and what’s next
[35:00–41:00] Portfolio Check: Profit-taking on shorts, AI exposure, Bitcoin bullishness
[41:00–47:00] Stablecoin Disruption: Why Amazon & Walmart may cut Visa out
[47:00–52:00] Trading Floor Energy: Bros and CCL get the buy signal treatment
[52:00–57:00] Short Watchlist: Hyatt, Cinemark, Flutter — names showing weakness
[57:00–1:02:00] Trade-Down Thesis: Why Carnival and Dutch Bros may outperform
[1:02:00–1:08:00] Signal Strategy: Stop losses, entry timing, and managing reversals
[1:08:00–1:15:00] Spain Mode Activated: Travel plans, content studio collab, and packing panic
[1:15:00–End] Final Thoughts: Discord shoutouts, market caution, and more signals ahead
Key Takeaways & Commentary
Despite rising geopolitical tensions, markets bounced sharply Monday morning. The S&P 500 climbed back toward 6070, erasing pre-weekend losses and testing key resistance.
Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD suggest the rally is stalling — but liquidity continues to provide a floor. We’re not seeing euphoria, but rather a quiet resilience in the face of uncertainty.
From a portfolio lens, it’s a “neutralize and rebalance” type of week. Shorts were profitable and were trimmed, while high-beta longs (like BROS and CCL) were selectively added.
Why Liquidity May Outweigh War
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