⏱️ Chapter Highlights
[00:00] Market at Final Boss
S&P tests key resistance (200-day MA); technicals suggest a pullback is near.
[06:00] Trump’s 80% China Tariff
Classic “MSU Framework” move — we break down the negotiation game plan.
[11:00] Fed Warning
Tariffs likely to boost inflation and slow growth later this year.
[14:00] Bitcoin & AI Rally
Crypto pops, and we explore whether AI hype mirrors the late ’90s tech bubble.
[32:00] Consumer Weakness
Real-time data shows spending is softening — especially on big-ticket items.
[44:00] Bullish Signals
Papa John’s, Target, and Dick’s Sporting Goods showing strength.
[55:00] Bearish Signals
NYT, ODP, and Portillo’s flagged as short opportunities.
[75:00] AI Dashboard Demo
Live walkthrough of our new Signals platform — now on Substack.
[100:00] My Updated Outlook
Still short, but now assigning a 20–25% chance of a near-term breakout before June Fed.
Morning Vibes & Market Setup
We kicked off the session with hydration tips (Barocca + electrolytes), guitar banter, and vibes from sunny Toronto. Spirits were high, but the markets were cautiously optimistic.
The S&P 500 is grinding its way toward a major resistance point we’ve been calling the “Final Boss” — the 200-day moving average. We’re also sitting within the “Wall of Hesitation,” a zone where the market has historically paused or reversed. Technicals suggest we’re at a critical inflection point.
Trade Wars & Tariff Theater: The MSU Framework
Trump threw markets a curveball by announcing a potential 80% tariff on Chinese goods, likely pulled from what I call the MSU framework — “Make Sh*t Up.” In typical negotiation fashion, this might just be anchoring for the real number. UK struck a deal with China at ~10%, which gives us a clue where this could head.
Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr warned that these tariffs could slow growth and stoke inflation later this year. Add in Powell’s recent comments, and it’s clear: the Fed is watching but not acting… yet.
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?
A lot of this rally smells like classic “buy the rumor, sell the news.” Everyone’s excited about improving trade talks, but we’re already seeing signs of weakness:
Port activity slowing (hedge funds are watching this in real time)
Retail data softening (consumer pull-forward behavior is distorting signals)
Corporate earnings showing a tale of two economies
Real-Time Data & Signals Update
Here’s what real-time spending data (via Signals) is telling us:
🟢 Bullish Signals:
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