Markets Open Higher on Payroll Beat and China Rhetoric
Happy Friday, everyone. This morning’s nonfarm payrolls came in above expectations at 177,000 (vs. 138,000 est), signaling continued labor market resilience. Unemployment held steady at 4.2%. These numbers, while strong on the surface, arrive just days after Q1 GDP showed a surprise contraction of -0.3%, raising questions about the true underlying strength of the economy.
At the same time, headlines out of China overnight signaled “openness to talks,” helping to support global sentiment. Combined with solid earnings from Meta and Microsoft, futures surged into the open, with the S&P up over 1% at market open.
Final Boss Resistance: S&P 500 Hits Key Technical Level
Today, the S&P opens directly into the top end of a multi-week consolidation range we’ve called the “Wall of Hesitation”—and just below the 200-day moving average (“Final Boss” territory).
Every prior attempt to break this level has been rejected. In 2022 and 2018, similar rallies into this level were followed by sharp pullbacks as macro risks (rate hikes, inflation, trade wars) materialized. If the market clears this zone, a short squeeze could be triggered, given how many funds are positioned short with tight stops just above
Revisiting the Barbell Portfolio Strategy
On today’s live, I walked through the reasoning behind temporarily exiting all long equity positions—except Bitcoin—in my long-term barbell portfolio. Here’s why:
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