🎯 Market Open Recap: A Weekend Wake-Up Call, A Monday Rally, and the AI Re-Entry
What a stream.
Between the new drum kit, a surprise market rally, and a deeper dive into the US-China standoff, this morning had a bit of everything. But underneath the noise, we’re at a critical juncture—technically, economically, and psychologically.
Let’s break it down.
🎯 The Setup
Markets opened strong: S&P 500 gapped up 1.7%, NASDAQ over 2%, right into major resistance zones.
Technicals matter here: We’re testing the same support-turned-resistance levels from March and April. Historically, these zones are tough to break on the first try.
Bullish momentum is building (MACD, RSI), but broader trends still show we’re in a short-to-medium term downtrend.
🔮 A Wake-Up Call on China
Over the weekend, I had one of those “everything is made in China” moments while unboxing my new drum set—and it sparked a deeper reflection.
Here’s what stood out in my research:
The US now accounts for only ~2.5% of China’s GDP. That’s a huge drop from the double-digit share in prior years.
China’s strategy? Play the long game. They even called this trade war the “Long March.”
But the risk? Losing not just the US, but also the EU and Southeast Asia, if the narrative shifts and allies align against China.
China still holds a massive trade surplus, but youth unemployment is surging, and consumer spending remains soft.
This isn’t a one-sided power play. Both countries have something to lose—and that’s exactly why I think a deal might happen faster than expected.
🧠 Negotiation Playbook in Action
This is classic anchoring: Trump goes ultra-aggressive with tariffs → China stays silent → US backpedals with “exceptions” on tech like iPhones and chips.
The market picked up on it. The 10-Year Treasury yield spiked—why? Because the way the reversal happened shook confidence. It looked like panic, not power.
But now? Yields are pulling back. If confidence gets restored, and tariffs cool, we could see the Fed with room to cut rates in May.
📉 Technicals: What the Charts Are Telling Us
S&P 500 opened right at resistance (~5479). Watch how it reacts this week. Last time we hit this level, we saw a selloff the next day.
NASDAQ 100 also opened at resistance. Tech is leading—but we’re still in a downtrend on RSI.
10-Year Yield showing signs of reversal (potential head & shoulders). This is the chart to watch.
If yields fall, Fed cuts become more likely. If confidence builds, stocks rally. That’s the setup.
💸 My Playbook: Sprinkle & Hedge
We’re not out of the woods yet. But we’re not in the dark either.
Here’s what I’m doing:
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