Welcome in, everybody. Happy Monday. Great to see so many of you here to kick off the week. Shoutout to Apple User, Sam, Miguel, Zuby, and everyone tuning in live. Hope your Monday is off to a solid start.
Let’s talk markets. The big headline over the weekend: Goldman Sachs revised its economic forecast. They now see a 35% chance of recession, up from 25%. Inflation expectations are higher, unemployment expectations are rising, and they’re blaming it on potential Trump-era tariffs being reintroduced. They estimate inflation could hit 3.5% this year—well above the Fed’s 2% target.
This morning, markets are red. The S&P 500 briefly broke below a key support level at 5,560, hitting 5,489. If that break holds, next key levels are 5,505, 5,445, and 5,400. These are levels I’m watching closely. If we close below 5,505, I expect more downside ahead.
There’s nervousness about what happens this Wednesday, which people are calling “Liberation Day,” when tariff decisions might be finalized. If tariffs go through, inflation expectations could spike, leading to fears of stagflation.
I got a few questions this morning about gold. Right now, gold is in overbought territory, but the rally is still strong. The MACD looked like it was about to roll over, but it reversed—a bit of a pump fake. Gold could keep running, especially in an environment like this. That said, I’d personally wait for a small pullback before adding more.
Bitcoin’s trading like a risk asset, not an inflation hedge. If the broader market continues to fall, I think BTC has room to fall too. Crypto is highly correlated to equities right now. Also, no major crypto-friendly policy shifts are expected until after the debt situation is stabilized.
For those feeling anxious about their positions: dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is your best friend. If you bought at the top and don’t add on dips, you could be waiting years to break even. But if you DCA every 1% or 2% dip, you dramatically lower your breakeven point.
Personally, I’m watching for the S&P to potentially hit 5,400 this week. That would be a 10% correction from the recent high of 6,150. That’s when I’d consider adding more.
We’ve got some key data coming this week:
Thursday: ISM Services PMI
Friday: Non-farm payrolls + unemployment rate Next week:
April 10: Core inflation
April 12: Consumer sentiment
The VIX is already at 25, showing elevated fear, but not panic. I think we’ll get more clarity once these numbers come out. Until then, I’m being patient.
I also got a few questions about what ETFs to buy in this environment. My answer: keep it simple and diversified. If I were building a portfolio today, I’d consider:
SCHD or VIG (dividend ETFs)
QQQM (tech, but lower expense ratio than QQQ)
IWDA or IEV (international exposure)
GLD or IAU (gold exposure)
For international exposure, MCHI (China) and IEV (Europe) are good ETFs. I think China is in a different cycle and could outperform in the short term.
Signals today from joinsignals.com:
Bullish: Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Dollar Tree (DLTR), VF Corp (VFC)
Bearish: Lazy Boy, CVS, Duke Energy
I’ll post a deeper dive on these tickers on Substack later today. But VF Corp stood out—it owns affordable brands like North Face and Vans, which are doing well as consumers trade down. Our data says VFC will beat earnings, and the stock hasn’t priced that in yet.
As always, this is not financial advice—just sharing how I’m thinking about the markets. I use real-time data and signals to help guide my swing trades. If you want to try it yourself, head to joinsignals.com/fungmoney. Substack and TikTok subscribers get extended access.
Thanks again to everyone who joined this morning. We’re back again April 4 for the non-farm payrolls release. That will be a big day.
Be safe, stay sharp, and keep learning.
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