06/08 - S&P at 6,000...Now What? (Pre-Market Update)

S&P 500 Closes Above 6,000: Euphoria or Earnings Justified?

Current Level S&P 500: 6000.36 | Near-Term Trend: Bullish (but stretched)

Key Levels to Watch: Resistance @ 6030, 6100, 6144 (ATH) | Support @ 5920, 5850

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Stocks ended last week strong, with the S&P 500 rising 1.51% to reclaim the 6,000 level despite mounting geopolitical risks, an escalating tech-trade war, and interest rate cuts getting pushed out. Once again, dip buyers stepped in, led by renewed enthusiasm around AI and a sharp rebound in Tesla.

While some are calling this a rally on “borrowed time,” I see a market grinding higher on momentum driven largely by tech and the AI trade. The bullish trend remains intact as long as inflation doesn’t surprise to the upside this week.

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Momentum Check: What the Charts Are Saying

Technically, the S&P 500 continues to ride its April uptrend. We bounced off 5920 support mid-week and closed strong on Friday, breaking above the May 19 high (5968). Momentum indicators like RSI (~65) suggest we’re approaching—but not yet in—overbought territory.

Unless macro shocks emerge (inflation, tariffs, or a major earnings miss), I expect the index to test the 6100–6144 zone in the coming sessions. That said, I’m watching for signs of buyer exhaustion, especially if CPI surprises to the upside.

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Fed Watch: Rate Cuts Keep Getting Delayed

US 10Y Yield: After peaking in April, yields have stabilized above 4.4%—a key level as markets reassess the Fed’s next move.

May’s jobs report showed 139,000 new jobs - above the 126,000 consensus. But the broader picture is still muddled: ADP missed badly, jobless claims are creeping up, and ISM Services dipped into contraction.

Yields jumped last week, with the 10-year closing at 4.51%. Rate cut odds for July are fading, and the Fed is now only expected to cut twice in 2025. The message? “Higher for longer” is back, at least until inflation softens meaningfully.

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Tariffs, Tech, and Trump: The New Market Triangle