04/13 - Predict Earnings Miss/Beat with Signals Data

Earnings season is kicking off tomorrow: we are granting you exclusive access to signals that can be used to determine whether a company will miss or beat earnings

You're invited to preview a new feature we’re testing for Signals users — one that estimates how likely a company is to beat or miss earnings.

How does it work?

One of the inputs into our proprietary score (aka the “C-Score”) is the Delta Score, which measures the likelihood that a company will miss, meet, or beat earnings expectations. We have isolated the score for the purposes of predicting earnings performance.

Below is a list of companies we have signals on that are reporting earnings this week. If you’re considering trading based on this list, please keep in mind the following risks:

• You accept that you’re trading at your own risk. This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.

• Our dataset may not capture the full picture of a company’s revenue — particularly for companies with significant international exposure (e.g. Nike’s sales in China or United Airlines’ business travel segment). This is reflected in the Accuracy score.

• Our data does not account for company guidance, which may be especially relevant this earnings season as future outlook could weigh more heavily than current results.

Explanation of the key table columns:

• Delta – Expected magnitutde of the beat/miss (must factor in Margin of Error).

• WoW - Week-over-week change in estimate in percentage terms

• MOE - Margin of Error +/- in percentage terms

• Probability – Likelihood of a beat/miss, within 1 standard deviation.

• Accuracy – How much of the company’s revenue we believe we have visibility into, based on our dataset.

• Relevance – How predictive our dataset has historically been for that company’s share price movement; i.e. how correlated is our data to their stock price?

Earnings Signals

We have signals on 11 companies reporting earnings this week:

Paid subscribers have access to the following additional earnings signals: Netflix, United Health & 3 more…