04/08 - Market Update: Pump Fake

S&P flips from +2% to -1.57% as 104% China tariff slams sentiment

After a brutal string of selloffs, the market tried to rally this morning—only to get smacked down by what looks like a classic bear market bounce.

I believe we still have more downside ahead this week. If you missed the dip last week, don’t worry—another opportunity may be coming fast. Here’s why:

P.S. I will be doing a TikTok Live at 8:30am EST tomorrow, so make sure to sign up! (link in my TikTok profile bio).

3 T’s Driving This Pullback: Tariffs, Treasuries & Tax

• Tariffs: Starting 12:01am EST on April 9, the U.S. will begin collecting new country-specific tariffs from 86 trade partners. So far, 70 of them are open to negotiation, but no new deals have been reached. China, in particular, just woke up to a 104% tariff slapped on their exports. Expect a strong counter soon—and that could shake things up fast.

• Treasuries: The 10-year treasury auction hits April 10. Yields tend to rise ahead of auctions, but this time, there’s concern: if demand comes in weak, it could spook the market. Watch this one closely—it could be a tipping point.

• Taxes: Historically, early April is a weak stretch for equities as investors raise cash for tax season. This selling pressure adds fuel to the current downtrend.

Key Levels to Watch: 4830, 4790 & 4674

S&P500: Key levels of support at 4830 (see April 6 market update for context), 4790 and 4674 (200-week moving average)

Although the 5-year support line at 4830 should act as strong support, given the risks I’ve layed out above, along with my view that China may come back with an unexpectedly strong counter, there is chance that 4830 does not hold and we test a new level of support.

The immediate next level would be 4790 - this level acted as resistance back in December 2023, though it is not as closely watched as the next one…